New Seat Details - Suffolk Coastal

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Suffolk Coastal been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	33,895	58.0%
LAB	17,805	30.5%
LIB	4,065	7.0%
Green	1,819	3.1%
OTH	807	1.4%
UKIP	21	0.0%
CON Majority	16,090	27.5%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Suffolk Coastal: Map

List of old seats forming part of Suffolk Coastal

Old seat: Suffolk Central and Ipswich North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Suffolk Central and Ipswich North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Suffolk Central and Ipswich North				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Ipswich	Castle Hill	5,582	Ipswich	2,245	1,436	222	191	136	0	0	0	4,230
Ipswich	Whitehouse	5,655	Central Suffolk	2,075	2,372	220	240	164	0	0	0	5,071
Ipswich	Whitton	5,588	Central Suffolk	2,120	2,099	233	88	85	0	0	0	4,625
Mid Suffolk	Barking and Somersham	1,785	Central Suffolk	755	317	79	61	21	0	0	0	1,233
Mid Suffolk	Bramford and Blakenham	3,406	Central Suffolk	1,330	608	163	115	43	0	0	0	2,259
Mid Suffolk	Claydon and Barham	3,604	Central Suffolk	1,731	624	167	47	109	0	0	0	2,678
Mid Suffolk	Debenham	1,866	Central Suffolk	781	404	55	57	56	0	0	0	1,353
Mid Suffolk	Eye	1,701	Central Suffolk	733	362	37	26	73	0	0	0	1,231
Mid Suffolk	Fressingfield	1,931	Central Suffolk	861	335	67	22	22	0	0	0	1,307
Mid Suffolk	Helmingham and Coddenham	1,799	Central Suffolk	951	266	66	19	22	0	0	0	1,324
Mid Suffolk	Hoxne	1,670	Central Suffolk	780	322	19	18	34	0	0	0	1,173
Mid Suffolk	Mendlesham	1,802	Central Suffolk	802	362	30	25	71	0	0	0	1,290
Mid Suffolk	Palgrave	1,806	Central Suffolk	906	316	25	23	51	0	0	0	1,321
Mid Suffolk	Stradbroke and Laxfield	2,125	Central Suffolk	1,020	322	32	26	61	0	0	0	1,461
Mid Suffolk	The Stonhams	1,801	Central Suffolk	903	285	72	21	53	0	0	0	1,334
Mid Suffolk	Wetheringsett	1,993	Central Suffolk	1,006	323	25	23	64	0	0	0	1,441
Mid Suffolk	Worlingworth	1,923	Central Suffolk	1,065	258	18	22	22	0	0	0	1,385
Suffolk Coastal	Framlingham	4,236	Central Suffolk	2,138	736	69	143	143	0	0	0	3,229
Suffolk Coastal	Fynn Valley	2,470	Central Suffolk	1,255	361	38	29	70	0	0	0	1,753
Suffolk Coastal	Grundisburgh	2,540	Central Suffolk	1,258	462	102	30	33	0	0	0	1,885
Suffolk Coastal	Hacheston	2,221	Central Suffolk	1,091	375	71	25	70	0	0	0	1,632
Suffolk Coastal	Kesgrave East	4,841	Central Suffolk	2,560	1,191	253	69	73	0	0	0	4,146
Suffolk Coastal	Kesgrave West	5,333	Central Suffolk	2,456	1,198	140	171	75	0	0	0	4,040
Suffolk Coastal	Tower	4,059	Central Suffolk	1,930	824	94	52	51	0	0	0	2,951
Suffolk Coastal	Wickham Market	2,083	Central Suffolk	877	463	95	71	29	0	0	0	1,535
Suffolk Coastal	Woodbridge	878	Suffolk Coastal	364	182	39	21	29	0	0	0	635
	Total	74,698		33,993	16,803	2,431	1,635	1,660	0	0	0	56,522

The full details of these calculations are given on the Suffolk Central and Ipswich North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Suffolk Coastal

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Suffolk Coastal, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Suffolk Coastal				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Suffolk Coastal	Aldeburgh	3,944	Suffolk Coastal	1,859	694	254	0	55	0	0	96	2,958
Suffolk Coastal	Deben	2,048	Suffolk Coastal	965	478	223	0	81	0	0	15	1,762
Suffolk Coastal	Felixstowe East	4,014	Suffolk Coastal	1,868	799	128	0	50	0	0	25	2,870
Suffolk Coastal	Felixstowe North	4,433	Suffolk Coastal	1,771	1,424	252	0	64	0	0	29	3,540
Suffolk Coastal	Felixstowe South	4,611	Suffolk Coastal	1,967	1,210	237	0	149	0	0	30	3,593
Suffolk Coastal	Felixstowe West	4,555	Suffolk Coastal	1,872	1,666	268	0	68	0	0	31	3,905
Suffolk Coastal	Hacheston	231	Central Suffolk	117	42	10	0	8	0	0	1	178
Suffolk Coastal	Kirton	2,353	Suffolk Coastal	1,156	387	61	0	67	0	0	14	1,685
Suffolk Coastal	Leiston	4,469	Suffolk Coastal	1,717	1,381	240	0	135	0	0	125	3,598
Suffolk Coastal	Martlesham	3,968	Suffolk Coastal	1,748	739	309	0	58	0	0	21	2,875
Suffolk Coastal	Melton	4,637	Suffolk Coastal	2,304	938	310	0	163	0	0	42	3,757
Suffolk Coastal	Nacton and Purdis Farm	2,347	Suffolk Coastal	1,248	432	70	0	29	0	0	13	1,792
Suffolk Coastal	Orford and Eyke	2,278	Suffolk Coastal	1,089	427	134	0	69	0	0	15	1,734
Suffolk Coastal	Peasenhall and Yoxford	2,277	Suffolk Coastal	1,073	403	87	0	71	0	0	12	1,646
Suffolk Coastal	Rendlesham	2,123	Suffolk Coastal	1,097	550	74	0	30	0	0	14	1,765
Suffolk Coastal	Saxmundham	4,145	Suffolk Coastal	1,763	855	337	0	57	0	0	87	3,099
Suffolk Coastal	The Trimleys	4,243	Suffolk Coastal	1,967	1,053	190	0	55	0	0	25	3,290
Suffolk Coastal	Wenhaston and Westleton	2,177	Suffolk Coastal	979	450	150	0	31	0	0	30	1,640
Suffolk Coastal	Wickham Market	147	Central Suffolk	64	35	12	0	2	0	0	1	114
Suffolk Coastal	Woodbridge	6,309	Suffolk Coastal	2,730	1,401	372	0	216	0	0	42	4,761
Waveney	Blything	1,710	Suffolk Coastal	777	374	46	0	52	0	0	13	1,262
Waveney	Halesworth	3,958	Suffolk Coastal	1,470	948	129	0	133	0	0	99	2,779
Waveney	Southwold and Reydon	2,890	Suffolk Coastal	1,300	631	110	0	97	0	0	19	2,157
Waveney	Wrentham	1,811	Suffolk Coastal	811	383	45	0	60	0	0	10	1,309
	Total	75,678		33,712	17,700	4,048	0	1,800	0	0	809	58,069

The full details of these calculations are given on the Suffolk Coastal seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Suffolk Coastal

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Suffolk Coastal
Suffolk Coastal	Aldeburgh	4,041	Suffolk Coastal	1,859	694	254	0	55	0	0	96	2,958
Suffolk Coastal	Deben	2,410	Suffolk Coastal	965	478	223	0	81	0	0	15	1,762
Suffolk Coastal	Felixstowe East	3,923	Suffolk Coastal	1,868	799	128	0	50	0	0	25	2,870
Suffolk Coastal	Felixstowe North	4,837	Suffolk Coastal	1,771	1,424	252	0	64	0	0	29	3,540
Suffolk Coastal	Felixstowe South	4,911	Suffolk Coastal	1,967	1,210	237	0	149	0	0	30	3,593
Suffolk Coastal	Felixstowe West	5,335	Suffolk Coastal	1,872	1,666	268	0	68	0	0	31	3,905
Suffolk Coastal	Kirton	2,302	Suffolk Coastal	1,156	387	61	0	67	0	0	14	1,685
Suffolk Coastal	Leiston	4,918	Suffolk Coastal	1,717	1,381	240	0	135	0	0	125	3,598
Suffolk Coastal	Martlesham	3,928	Suffolk Coastal	1,748	739	309	0	58	0	0	21	2,875
Suffolk Coastal	Melton	5,134	Suffolk Coastal	2,304	938	310	0	163	0	0	42	3,757
Suffolk Coastal	Nacton and Purdis Farm	2,449	Suffolk Coastal	1,248	432	70	0	29	0	0	13	1,792
Suffolk Coastal	Orford and Eyke	2,370	Suffolk Coastal	1,089	427	134	0	69	0	0	15	1,734
Suffolk Coastal	Peasenhall and Yoxford	2,251	Suffolk Coastal	1,073	403	87	0	71	0	0	12	1,646
Suffolk Coastal	Rendlesham	2,413	Suffolk Coastal	1,097	550	74	0	30	0	0	14	1,765
Suffolk Coastal	Saxmundham	4,237	Suffolk Coastal	1,763	855	337	0	57	0	0	87	3,099
Suffolk Coastal	The Trimleys	4,497	Suffolk Coastal	1,967	1,053	190	0	55	0	0	25	3,290
Suffolk Coastal	Wenhaston and Westleton	2,241	Suffolk Coastal	979	450	150	0	31	0	0	30	1,640
Suffolk Coastal	Woodbridge	878	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	364	182	39	21	29	0	0	0	635
Suffolk Coastal	Woodbridge	6,509	Suffolk Coastal	2,730	1,401	372	0	216	0	0	42	4,761
Waveney	Blything	1,726	Suffolk Coastal	777	374	46	0	52	0	0	13	1,262
Waveney	Halesworth	3,799	Suffolk Coastal	1,470	948	129	0	133	0	0	99	2,779
Waveney	Southwold and Reydon	2,949	Suffolk Coastal	1,300	631	110	0	97	0	0	19	2,157
Waveney	Wrentham	1,790	Suffolk Coastal	811	383	45	0	60	0	0	10	1,309
	Total	79,848		33,895	17,805	4,065	21	1,819	0	0	807	58,412

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Suffolk Coastal. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Therese Coffey (CON)
County/Area:	Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	79,848
Turnout:	73.2%

Suffolk Coastal: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Suffolk Coastal: Overview

Introduction